Someone thinking about many of the same things I am.

For much of the history of the human race, people could barely support themselves by their own labor. Work was by hand and mostly consisted of agricultural production, tools and shelter. The rise of the industrial revolution and the machine age changed this. A few people could now produce enough for many. This has led to a permanent condition where the labor supply exceeds demand, except in unusual circumstances, like war or pandemic. The result has been that wages have always remained low relative to the total wealth produced. In an earlier age it was royalty or the aristocracy that absorbed the excess wealth. With the rise of the corporation it was the big industrialists.

This has now reached a new crisis moment. Advanced agriculture requires only 2-3% of the work force to feed everyone and even can provide export capacity. Manufacturing is highly automated and factories that a few decades ago required hundred’s now make more with only dozens of workers. To pick up the slack wealthy societies have invented a large number of “service” jobs, which resist mechanization. Hardly anyone makes their own clothing, or bakes their own bread anymore. With many more women in the workforce, child care is now given over to a service sector as is much personal care. The rise of the financial sector and “intellectual property” has also absorbed a goodly number of workers.

Even with all this make-work we still have excess labor. In many places chronic unemployment reaches 30% or more. This leads to a permanent class of disaffected young people who are under educated, have few marketable skills and are prone to civil unrest and criminal mischief. If we can make everything that we truly need with 20-30% of the population what are we to do with everyone else?

My best guess is that if technological society continues, in 20-30 years a large percentage of the labor force will be unemployable — I’d guess about 50%, but no matter the actual number, it will be significant. Thinking about how to deal with that is an interesting problem.

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