June 2008
Monthly Archive
Hiatus, Lowatus, whatevah
| Posted by Chill on 25 Jun 2008 |
This blog is on hiatus for a few weeks. Check back then, or face the wrath of Cthulu!
Ain’t no such thang
| Posted by Chill on 20 Jun 2008 |
Before someone proclaims that you can’t do something or that something is impossible, read this.
That doesn’t mean it can be done — you still may be an idiot, or just wrong — but what people say is achievable and what actually is achievable are two different things entirely, and it’s worthwhile to always remember that.
Not so super models
| Posted by Chill on 20 Jun 2008 |
Barry Ritholtz over at The Big Picture made a good point today worth repeating, and one I think about often.
It’s this: All models are wrong.
No, this doesn’t have anything to do with Kate Moss, though it’s probably true of her as well.
What it means is that no model truly represents reality. The model is not the world. It always amuses me and baffles me when I see academics whose models are clearly being contradicted daily, monthly, and yearly continue to blindly follow the model. Rarely in my life have I been in a position to call anyone on this, but when I have, it’s usually met with anger and dismissal.
Whereas I, with my “uneducated” self, cheerily toss out a model if it proves to be wrong just as if I were throwing away last night’s lychee hulls.
Models are only as good as what they can tell you about the world. If it turns out the model has broken, then it’s time to trash it.
Medicine tastes bad
| Posted by Chill on 20 Jun 2008 |
Doin’ the neutron dance
| Posted by Chill on 19 Jun 2008 |
This is the best post I’ve read in a very long while.
It’s a strange day when I don’t have anything to spout my mouth off about in response, but this time I just don’t.
Strictly speaking
| Posted by Chill on 19 Jun 2008 |
The story below is an example of mokita that puts people in zugzwang.
Crime bunny
| Posted by Chill on 19 Jun 2008 |
What happens when what you want to believe meets reality.
Nuke me, please
| Posted by Chill on 18 Jun 2008 |
Wow, something John McCain and I agree on. Didn’t think I’d see that day.
He called for 45 new nuclear reactors to be built.
We’re facing hard choices now energy-wise, and many people don’t realize it, but technological society hangs in the balance. Something is going to have to replace oil and coal, and nuclear is far safer than most give it credit for, and safer by far than coal. (Look up why your damn self.)
I don’t have any inclination to make a full case here, but I’m all for as many nuclear reactors as they want to throw up.
Yes, feeling pugnacious today
| Posted by Chill on 18 Jun 2008 |
Someone on Pandagon the other day made a funny point about PETA: They throw (threw? Do they still do that?) paint on women wearing fur coats, and never seem(ed) to throw paint on groups of Hell’s Angels wearing leather jackets.
It’s no mystery why — it’s a lot easier to attack someone less capable of fighting back, or who is viewed as less likely to fight back even if they are capable.
I’m no Hell’s Angel, but if some numbnut threw paint on my leather jacket, that’d be interesting. Not so much for them, really. But there is nothing more fun than beating the hell out of someone who well and truly deserves it. I hope they like the taste of paint, and the can it came in!
Anyway, I have nothing against PETA — but I do have a problem with assault. Except I tend to be the type not to call the police to report an assault, but rather to call them to inform them they need to take the assailant or corpse to the hospital or the morgue, as the case may be.
I say “fuck” a lot
| Posted by Chill on 18 Jun 2008 |
I can already tell you that whatever guidelines AP comes up with, I won’t be following them.
They can’t enforce any stricter controls on Fair Use than the law allows.
Fuck AP, fuck Irene Keselman, AP’s legal idiot, and fuck anyone who attempts to take away our rights, and fuck the sycophants and bootlickers like Shelley Powers, mentioned in the story and who is also the first commenter.
And yep, just in case you think I’m just some internet blowhard, I would say all of this to their faces — well, not so much say, as bellow. Sometimes, people are too dumb to have any meaningful dialogue with. Fuck them all.
Deluge photos
| Posted by Chill on 18 Jun 2008 |
Best new blog around, with some great pictures of the flooding in Iowa.
It’s about time someone put up pictures large enough to be worth looking at. Who really cares about people running at 800×600? Most people have far better than that these days, and catering content only to those people makes the internet a far worse place.
Tempus fugit
| Posted by Chill on 17 Jun 2008 |
The idea that you cannot time the market is wrong.
This is told to keep rubes in the market, and to keep their money, in part.
I think what people really mean is that you cannot time it exactly, and that is true. However, I have successfully traded in and out of the market several times in my life, and I plan to keep on doing it now that I’ve begun actively trading again.
Most recently, I timed the market by waiting for the DJIA fall from near 13,000 to 12,300 (and the NASDAQ), a significant decline that will save/make us some money over the long term. Though I believe the market will fall more, it met my requirements for enough of a decline to buy in with a new trading account.
However, my most spectacular instance of market timing was selling out completely — every last cent — before the dot com crash. I preserved all of my wealth through that, and then bought nearly at the bottom of the crash, thus getting free “leverage.” After that time, I stopped actively trading, so I did not attempt to avoid the real estate crash, though I knew (as did anyone not insane) it was coming.
Most people cannot market time, because they are too emotional. Emotions are how you lose money in a market. Trying to avoid all losses and to eke out every last cent of profit are keystones of failure.
So, how do you know when it’s a good bet to attempt to time the market?
First, these opportunities don’t happen often — maybe once every six or seven years. Trying to jump in and out of the market on a weekly or monthly basis will get your ass handed to you, right quick. Don’t do this. Wait for the right opportunity. For instance, a sure sell sign is if a graph goes straight up, and it is not sustained by any fundamentals. For instance, every dot com company in history during the 1997-1999 time period. I successfully rode Yahoo and Amazon for 300%+ gains, but also made sure I was not the greatest fool — the last one holding the bag.
Second, you never will know exactly when the top is. No one does. This is what the “OMG-you-can-never-time-the-market!” types mean when they say it’s impossible. What they miss is that you don’t need to know exactly when the top is, you just need to keep your eyes peeled for irrational exuberance and those vertical graphs. When those two combine, you are near a top, though you’ll never know exactly where in that process.. Don’t let your emotions fool you into staying in until the last minute, because you’ll end up being the idiot holding the bag. When irrational exuberance, with the vast majority saying, “This market will never go down!” combine with lack of any fundamentals, sell. The market may continue going up for months, but take solace in the fact that the more it goes up from this point, the worse the crash will be and the better your buying opportunities at the bottom. Take your profits and wait. No emotion, remember.
Third, and most important, don’t do this with any money you can’t afford to lose — you could be wrong, or maybe you’re just dumb. Either way, the point still stands. Don’t do any of these shenanigans with any money that you need, now or in the future. If you’re depending on using that money to eat in 20 years, refrain from market timing and jump into an index fund and forget it. You’ll be much better off.
Also, don’t forget that you’ll be taxed on any capital gains. And if you’re really brave, you can short the market on the way down and increase your profits. I generally would not recommend it, though. It increases your risk more than it increases your profits and can leave you in a world of hurt.
I watched people lose their fortunes (among them, a close friend of mine) in the dot com crash, while I was golden with all my cash. No one can tell me that you can’t market time, because I’ve done it enough to know that it just ain’t so.
No how, no way
| Posted by Chill on 17 Jun 2008 |
Note to users: As a domain admin, when I give you full control access to a folder, don’t try to lock me out. You can’t. No really, you can’t. Trust me on this. No matter what tricks you attempt to pull, no matter how many little buttons you click, no matter how many “tips” you find on the Internet, you can’t keep me out of a folder that I granted you permission to access.
This is by design. If you don’t want me to access a folder, there are two choices:
1) Don’t put the folder on a network I manage.
2) Attempt to get me fired.
Yes, I do like to “disappear” content in folders you think you’ve locked me out of, until you have to come running to me to put it all back. It’s a bad habit, but it’s effective.
Remote burger
| Posted by Chill on 16 Jun 2008 |
This is odd but probably a good thing, generally. Not having some harried fast food worker attempting to do 30 different things at once would, I think, tend to increase order accuracy quite a bit.
When machines are able to replace these people is when things will get interesting. If you’re under 40, that will happen in your lifetime.
More on these sorts of changes sometime later.
Bach to the future of AI
| Posted by Chill on 13 Jun 2008 |
A good interview with Dougie Hofstadter.
He’s a good thinker, though his most famous book, Gödel, Escher, Bach, is about 900 pages too long for what it actually says.